Post mortem for 2014 predictions

Right now, I'm not sure.

Will Venture capital continue, will social impact investing continue? Yes.

will there be a huge success story that will bring in everyone to the table? No

Social Bonds will continue to get attention. but not many transactions. A social bond is still a private contract between parties. While it is still so difficult, it will continue to be a lightly used instrument. One thing that might change the entire scope is if a larger foundation agrees to backstop everything. Meaning that the large foundation will provide the liquidity that's needed in order to provide peace of mind and comfort to the social bond buyers, in case someone needs to get out of the transaction. This reduces the risk of the investment, and could facilitate that project. However, it would require someone to guarantee everything, and there are only a handful of groups that could successfully provide this type of insurance.


 

Result: No one has decided to be a market maker for a social bond. The idea is still floating out there, but a marquis deal hasn't been announced that started the flood gates

US Recovery
I still want to see the fundamentals improve, not the window-dressing. Unemployment numbers going down because people are no longer allowed to be counted is not a healthy situation. If we need to start talking about jobless rate, not unemployment numbers, then we should change the conversation.


 

Result: Dow hit 18,000. I must be wrong, right? Maybe I am. I still don't believe this is a healthy recovery, or that the new normal is in place. I can't see with all the quantitative easing that this current market is a free market. But I can also be blind, since the metrics that we normally expect to see and use are supposedly in the green. I'll admit that the numbers don't support my thesis that this is not a healthy recovery. But I will not concede the fact that this is not a normal scenario, and thus the metrics we observe are suspect.

New Tech
Smart-watches?
wearable computers?
google glass?
I think the VR helmet will finally become a reality. It might be used for entertainment purposes, and require a new style/type of director to determine the shots used. Finding that innovative person will take longer and shorter than before. Longer, because it will be another different level of experience. Shorter, because anyone can try, and with so many folks trying, someone will eventually get it right. Will it be in 2014? I hope so. I probably won't recognize it, but it will be traced to technology available in 2014, and experimentation that was refined in this coming year.

Result:

Google Cardboard is what I'll say is breaking the market. It's cheap, easy to make, and uses a smart phone as the screen for VR. The hobbyists will lead the way. But with such a cheap entry way into VR, it'll become more interesting and effective as we go forward. Did I finally get a prediction right? It's as close as I'll probably get, so I'll just claim victory and go home.