Post Mortem on 2010 predictions and 2011 predictions

Post Mortem on 2010 predictions.

This time last year, I wrote the following:
http://j-lp.com/blog/2009/12/more-guesses-for-2010-and-beyond.html

So what will happen in the next 12 months?
 
We won't feel the effects of the "recovery" unless fundamental growth happens.  Given the current status, unless we go through a lot more pain, there's nothing solid to build upon.
Cleantech investments will separate by sectors/industries. Investors who could successfully invest in data management/transmission will invest in smart-grid technologies. Those groups that understood silicon chip fabrication will have an advantage in silicon photovoltaic systems.  People who try and cross those areas and be general cleantech folks will have a problem, looking at too many sectors along too many lines.
One big opportunity will happen.  Not sure what sector it will be in, food/medical/transportation/infrastructure.  But the more I learn about each area, the more chances I see for a stumble or issue to arise
China will take on a more prominent role in being seen as a leader in regional and global politics
The clues for the next big crash in 2010 were already apparent in 2009.  We just didn't want to believe that it could happen again.  After all, we must have learned something, right?  I'm going to guess gold or another commodity product.
 
How did I do?

I still don't think the recovery really happened in 2010. I didn't see fundamental growth, and so will claim this as a correct.
Cleantech investments separating by industry, it's happened, but the silicon pv side was wrong. China has out priced and produced everyone else, and change the fundamentals of the industry.
Big opportunity? Not sure I recognized the right now, not sure if I could recognize one right now.
China- I'll claim that as a win. The influence is greater than many folks suspect, the expansion of influence in all of Asia, as well as africa and south America are pretty solid.
Gold – I was wrong. The run up is continuing. And while it is a metal, it doesn't have that much use right now. I'll probably shy away from commodities in my predictions.

Big miss- tablet computing/ipad popularity.

New predictions for 2011

Not sure this time. I haven't been doing much thinking about what's to come in 2011.

The crash is not over, so a double dip, or continued decline is likely.

Separation of potential ideas and quality ideas will continue, and someone will have a concept that will be considered obvious after the fact. Something akin to the beer and diapers correlation.

Nasty surprise as many more economies that were floating along will crash. States and nations will have difficulty in the coming year. There will be some bail out efforts, but after a while, the energy will deflate, and no more support will come.