More guesses for 2010 and beyond

More predictions for 2010, and beyond.


A new decade is always worth playing around with.  New ideas, and predictable cycles.


Another bubble forming.  Yes, there will be more.  Those old tattered bumper stickers asking "please, just one more bubble" have been answered and will continue to be answered.


Medical breakthrough in 2010.  We've have face transplants, hand transplants already this century.  I'm going to side with those futurists who believe that the first person to live to 1000 has already been born.  I might not be so aggressive, I'll tone it down to: the first person to live past 200 years has already been born.


I do believe that nano-machines/particles can be used to maintain our body systems.  Maybe not repair, but remove plaque buildup, eliminate toxins, hunt down and destroy cancer cells that for one reason or another do not stop reproducing.  Just maintaining the body systems from breakdown will add decades to our lives.


Loss of islands and coastlines:

The next 10 years will see more cities become like Venice.  The water levels will rise, and coastlines will encroach.  The practice of trying to push more sand up on shore to rebuild beaches will become too costly, and many areas of coast will fall into the ocean.

The real issue is displaced population as more and more people move to coastal urban areas (also called slums).  This will set off another wave of migration as the shorelines recede.  Possibly for the first time in modern history, no continent will be unaffected.  Some will fare better than others, but we will have more people in fewer areas.  This has already started in areas like Bangladesh, but will continue in the coming years.


Loss of American leadership in innovation and discovery.

While the US will still lead overall, there will be pockets of focused innovation and discovery around the world.  Instead of getting everything out of US universities and technology centers, more discoveries will be made outside of US boarders.  Other countries will focus on areas, and with the current immigration status of highly educated individuals in doubt for the US, many well educated and innovative people will go home, or other parts of the globe and proceed to do cutting edge research.  As long as there is not too much interference from governments/organizations what can and can not be discovered, these regions will succeed and prosper.  However, as soon as the heavy hand of regulation starts to show up, that will delay or quash any true innovation.


We are going to move away from analog analogues, and truly start using technology in ways that can only be done with a better understanding of technology.  I mean that we are no longer going to be doing "radio with pictures".  Not watching TV on computer monitors, no longer using cellphones as portable web browsers.  Things are going to change and change dramatically.  The same way that we do not text the same way we write emails or have phone calls.  We are not going to communicate nor interact with information the same as when we're at a desktop sitting in a chair.


There is always a surprise around the corner, that's what makes prediction so much fun.  


So what will happen in the next 12 months?


  • We won't feel the effects of the "recovery" unless fundamental growth happens.  Given the current status, unless we go through a lot more pain, there's nothing solid to build upon.
  • Cleantech investments will separate by sectors/industries.  Investors who could successfully invest in data management/transmission will invest in smart-grid technologies.  Those groups that understood silicon chip fabrication will have an advantage in silicon photovoltaic systems.  People who try and cross those areas and be general cleantech folks will have a problem, looking at too many sectors along too many lines.
  • One big opportunity will happen.  Not sure what sector it will be in, food/medical/transportation/infrastructure.  But the more I learn about each area, the more chances I see for a stumble or issue to arise
  • China will take on a more prominent role in being seen as a leader in regional and global politics
  • The clues for the next big crash in 2010 were already apparent in 2009.  We just didn't want to believe that it could happen again.  After all, we must have learned something, right?  I'm going to guess gold or another commodity product.